Investment Trends Monitor - Impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 Outbreak on Global FDI - Special Issue March 2020
- The outbreak and spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) will negatively affect global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. With scenarios of the spread of the epidemic ranging from short-term stabilization to continuation throughout the year, the downward pressure on FDI will be -5% to -15% (compared to previous forecasts projecting marginal growth in the FDI trend for 2020-2021).
- The impact on FDI will be concentrated in those countries that are most severely hit by the epidemic, although negative demand shocks and the economic impact of supply chain disruptions will affect investment prospects in other countries.
- More than two thirds of the multinational enterprises (MNEs) in UNCTAD's Top 100, a bellwether of overall investment trends, have issued statements on the impact of Covid-19 on their business. Many are slowing down capital expenditures in affected areas. In addition, lower profits to date, 41 have issued profit alerts will translate into lower reinvested earnings (a major component of FDI).
- On average, the top 5000 MNEs, which account for a significant share of global FDI, have seen downward revisions of 2020 earnings estimates of 9% due to Covid-19. Hardest hit are the automotive industry (-44%), airlines (-42%) and energy and basic materials industries (-13%). Profits of MNEs based in emerging economies are more at risk than those of developed country MNEs: developing country MNE profit guidance has been revised downwards by 16%.
More UNCTAD Investment Trends Monitor Reports can be found here: unctad.org/en/pages/publications/Global-Investment-Trends-Monitor-(Series).aspx