A short note written up after some private exchanges. Comments are welcome, and I would be pleased if somebody would develop this with me into perhaps a larger comment:

Estimating litigation success

I wish to raise with a wider audience the question of how to estimate the risk/benefit equation of prospective international arbitration. The situation is essentially that of an experienced counsel to whom a prospective claimant and respondent turn to get an idea about the likely risks, benefits and probabilities of possible arbitration. That question would - and should - have to be asked when considering alternatives - negotiated settlement, mediation, but also various forms of litigation if there are such alternatives (different venues, arbitral rules, forum- and ...